The gaming industry is big business in the U.S., contributing an estimated US$240 billion to the economy each year, while generating $38 billion in tax revenues and supporting 17 million jobs.

What people may not realize is that slot machines, video poker machines and other electronic gaming devices make up the bulk of all that economic activity. At casinos in Iowa and South Dakota, for example, such devices have contributed up to 89 percent of annual gaming revenue.

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Spinning-reel slots in particular are profit juggernauts for most casinos, outperforming table games like blackjack, video poker machines and other forms of gambling.

What about slot machines makes them such reliable money makers? In part, it has something to do with casinos’ ability to hide their true price from even the savviest of gamblers.

The price of a slot

An important economic theory holds that when the price of something goes up, demand for it tends to fall.

But that depends on price transparency, which exists for most of the day-to-day purchases we make. That is, other than visits to the doctor’s office and possibly the auto mechanic, we know the price of most products and services before we decide to pay for them.

Slots may be even worse than the doctor’s office, in that most of us will never know the true price of our wagers. Which means the law of supply and demand breaks down.

Casino operators usually think of price in terms of what is known as the average or expected house advantage on each bet placed by players. Basically, it’s the long-term edge that is built into the game. For an individual player, his or her limited interaction with the game will result in a “price” that looks a lot different.

For example, consider a game with a 10 percent house advantage – which is fairly typical. This means that over the long run, the game will return 10 percent of all wagers it accepts to the casino that owns it. So if it accepts $1 million in wagers over 2 million spins, it would be expected to pay out $900,000, resulting in a casino gain of $100,000. Thus from the management’s perspective, the “price” it charges is the 10 percent it expects to collect from gamblers over time.

Individual players, however, will likely define price as the cost of the spin. For example, if a player bets $1, spins the reels and receives no payout, that’ll be the price – not 10 cents.

So who is correct? Both, in a way. While the game has certainly collected $1 from the player, management knows that eventually 90 cents of that will be dispensed to other players.

A player could never know this, however, given he will only be playing for an hour or two, during which he may hope a large payout will make up for his many losses and then some. And at this rate of play it could take years of playing a single slot machine for the casino’s long-term advantage to become evident.

Short-term vs. long-term

This difference in price perspective is rooted in the gap between the short-term view of the players and the long-term view of management. This is one of the lessons I’ve learned in my more than three decades in the gambling industry analyzing the performance of casino games and as a researcher studying them.

Let’s consider George, who just got his paycheck and heads to the casino with $80 to spend over an hour on a Tuesday night. There are basically three outcomes: He loses everything, hits a considerable jackpot and wins big, or makes or loses a little but manages to walk away before the odds turn decidedly against him.

Of course, the first outcome is far more common than the other two – it has to be for the casino to maintain its house advantage. The funds to pay big jackpots come from frequent losers (who get wiped out). Without all these losers, there can be no big winners – which is why so many people play in the first place.

Specifically, the sum of all the individual losses is used to fund the big jackpots. Therefore, to provide enticing jackpots, many players must lose all of their Tuesday night bankroll.

What is less obvious to many is that the long-term experience rarely occurs at the player level. That is, players rarely lose their $80 in a uniform manner (that is, a rate of 10 percent per spin). If this were the typical slot experience, it would be predictably disappointing. But it would make it very easy for a player to identify the price he’s paying.

Raising the price

Ultimately, the casino is selling excitement, which is comprised of hope and variance. Even though a slot may have a modest house advantage from management’s perspective, such as 4 percent, it can and often does win all of George’s Tuesday night bankroll in short order.

This is primarily due to the variance in the slot machine’s pay table – which lists all the winning symbol combinations and the number of credits awarded for each one. While the pay table is visible to the player, the probability of producing each winning symbol combination remains hidden. Of course, these probabilities are a critical determinant of the house advantage – that is, the long-term price of the wager.

This rare ability to hide the price of a good or service offers an opportunity for casino management to raise the price without notifying the players – if they can get away with it.

Casino managers are under tremendous pressure to maximize their all-important slot revenue, but they do not want to kill the golden goose by raising the “price” too much. If players are able to detect these concealed price increases simply by playing the games, then they may choose to play at another casino.

This terrifies casino operators, as it is difficult and expensive to recover from perceptions of a high-priced slot product.

Getting away with it

Consequently, many operators resist increasing the house advantages of their slot machines, believing that players can detect these price shocks.

Our new research, however, has found that increases in the casino advantage have produced significant gains in revenue with no signs of detection even by savvy players. In multiple comparisons of two otherwise identical reel games, the high-priced games produced significantly greater revenue for the casino. These findings were confirmed in a second study.

Further analysis revealed no evidence of play migration from the high-priced games, despite the fact their low-priced counterparts were located a mere 3 feet away.

Importantly, these results occurred in spite of the egregious economic disincentive to play the high-priced games. That is, the visible pay tables were identical on both the high- and low-priced games, within each of the two-game pairings. The only difference was the concealed probabilities of each payout.

Armed with this knowledge, management may be more willing to increase prices. And for price-sensitive gamblers, reel slot machines may become something to avoid.

by Steve Bourie

The Seminole Tribe of Florida has six casinos in the state: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Tampa; Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Coconut Creek; SeminoleClassic Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Brighton; and Seminole Casino-Immokalee.

All of their casinos offer slot machines and five of them also offer blackjack, as well as other kinds of house-banked card games. According to the Miami Herald, it was estimated those casinosgenerated about $2.3 billion in profits in 2016 http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/article166085722.html. Since the average U.S. casino generates about 65% of its profits from its electronic gaming machines, it would be fair toestimate that the Tribe’s machines earn about $1.5 billion a year for them.

The only other competition for the Tribe’s casinos are the eight local pari-mutuels in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties which all offer slot machines, but are not allowed to offer live tablegames, such as blackjack. All of these pari-mutuel casinos, also known as racinos, are in competition with the Seminole’s three Broward county casinos, but the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel& Casino in Hollywood alone generates more profits than all eight of the racinos combined.

Florida gaming regulations require all of the pari-mutuel casinos to report how much their slot machines actually pay back to the public. This “Average Payout Percentage” information isavailable to the public and can be seen on the state’s website at http://www.myfloridalicense.com/dbpr/pmw in the “Slot Revenues” section. Additionally, each racino must post a sign in the casino showing the average monthly payback percentage forall of their gaming machines. Usually, the average for all of the casinos is around 92.5%

Slot Machine Volume Study Guide

The Seminoles are not required to release information on the payout percentages for any of their casinos and they keep this information a closely guarded secret. They say that theirmachines pay out at a rate comparable to the pari-mutuels, but no one knows for sure, and the topic is sometimes a source of controversy.

Slot Machine Volume Study Guides

If you read reviews of Seminole casinos on Yelp, Tripadvisor, or on our website at americancasinoguide.com you will see some reviewers say they believe the machines are set to around 60%, orlower. As someone who has written about casino gambling for more than 25 years, I know that isn’t true. The procedure for deciding what a slot machine is set to pay back to the public is rathersimple. When a casino orders a slot machine the manufacturer will offer them a choice of chips to put in the machine and that chip is what controls the long-term payback percentage in thatmachine. Generally, there are about six to eight different chips to choose from and the payback percentages can be as high as 98 percent to as low as 82 percent.

Casinos, almost universally, put the highest-paying chips in the highest denomination machines and the lowest-paying chips in the lowest denomination machines. This means that $25 slots willhave chips returning around 95-98 percent and the penny machines will have chips returning around 86-89 percent.

The lowest payback I ever heard of for a chip was about 80 percent, so I knew that the 60 percent number in the user reviews was not correct, but could there be some way to find out what themachines at the Seminole casinos really paid back to the public? After a lot of research, I believe that I have correctly calculated this information and what follows is my story of how I didit, plus a simple formula to show how anyone can do it. Additionally, we’ll take a look at the returns on some specific machines at some Seminole Casinos and see how they compare to the returnsat other casinos. Now, in order to start this discussion properly, you’ll first need some background information on how casinos work.

When discussing how casinos make money, it is important to know the term “theo,” which is short for theoretical. This is how a casino expects to make money on its games. It’s referred to as“theo” because it is a theoretical number that is not guaranteed. However, the casino knows that the longer you play, the more likely your loss will approach the theoretical win for thatparticular game.

As an example, if you play a slot machine that has a 10% theo, then the casino would expect to keep about 10% of all the money you play through that machine. So, if you played $1,000 throughthat slot machine, the casino would calculate its theoretical win as $100 because 10% of $1,000 is $100. Now, since this is gambling, anything can happen when you play that machine. You may win$600, or you may lose $400 and, actually, the casino itself doesn’t know what will happen. All they know is that as long as people continue to play that machine, the casino will end up keepingabout 10% of the money that goes through that machine because the machine has a “theo” of 10%.

In order for a casino to calculate your total theo for your visit, and what you are worth as a player to them, your play must be tracked and that is done by the player’s club at each casino.All casinos have a player’s club where visitors can join and have their play tracked on the machines in order to earn “comps” such as free food, free drinks, free shows, free gifts, invitationsto special events and more.

To track your play you are issued a card, similar to a magnetic-striped credit card, that is inserted into the machine and it will track your wins and losses, as well as the total amount of allyour bets. Naturally, the more you play on the machines, the more free stuff you will get from the casino. When deciding how much to give you back in benefits for your play, the casino mustfirst calculate your total theoretical loss to determine how much they have earned from you. Then, based on that total, they will rebate a certain percentage back to you in the form ofcomps and free play. The actual percentage rebated to the player is a trade secret for each casino but, again, it is always based on a player’s tracked theoretical loss.

I live only one mile from the Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Hollywood and I joined their Seminole Wild Card player’s club shortly after the property opened in 2004. Although I did not playmuch in the ensuing years, in late 2013 I began to play rather heavily and it continued through early 2017. My game of choice was video poker rather than slot machines because there is a skillinvolved in video poker and I used software to learn how to play my hands properly. Eventually, I played at an expert level that allowed the casino to have only a slight mathematical edge overme.

Overall, my results were pretty good as I hit quite a few royal flushes in 2016 and that helped me to come out ahead for my three years of play. In early 2017 the casino made some changes totheir video poker games, which made them less desirable, and I stopped playing. During my period of play I used that opportunity to analyze the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club and, following,is what I discovered.

Slot Machine Volume Study Tool

The set-up of the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is somewhat unusual because at most casinos when you play a machine you will earn points based on the total amount of money you put through amachine. On some machines it may be that $5 earns one point, while on other machines it may be $10 or $25 earns one point.

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The Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is different because players don’t earn points on each machine, instead they earn comp dollars. As an example, for playing $10 through one machine you mightearn six cents, while on another machine you might only earn three cents. So, if you ended up playing $1,000 for the day on the same machine, your comps would total $6 on the first machine, or$3 on the second machine. As a player, you wouldn't really know why one machine gave more comps, but you could correctly theorize that the machines that had a higher rate meant that the casinowas making more of a theoretical win from you and that's why they could give you back more comps.

The comps you earned could then be spent like regular dollars at hotels, restaurants, bars, lounges and retail stores at any of the six Seminole Casinos. Besides earning comps, each day's playalso earned you status credits and those enabled you to reach a higher player's card level. Interestingly, there was no information on a formula for how the status credits were earned. As aplayer all you knew was that you could check your account each day to see how many status credits you earned for your previous day's play.

The player's club only has three tiers: Platinum, Elite and X Card. All players start at Platinum and to reach Elite you need to earn 3,750 status credits within a three-month period. X Card isreserved for the casino's biggest players, but there is no public information available on what is needed to attain that level.

I easily attained Elite level and after tracking the comps and status credits I earned each day, within a few months I began to realize that the status credits actually represented my totaltheoretical loss for each day. I was able to confirm this through test play on certain machines, as well as speaking with other knowledgeable players.

Once I knew that the earned status credits represented my total theoretical loss I was then able to compare that number to the total comps I earned on that same day and I realized that therewas a relationship between those two numbers. As an example, one day I earned $48.75 in comps and I was awarded 828 status credits. By multiplying $48.75 by a factor of 17 the result was828. Another day I earned $30.83 in comps and 524 status credits. Once again, by multiplying $30.83 by 17 the result was 524. That relationship was absolute and no matter what day I played, Ifound that I could always multiply the amount of my earned comps by 17 to determine my status credits (theoretical loss) for that day.

Since I now knew how to calculate my theoretical loss for the day, based on the comps I earned, I then realized that I would be able to calculate what the casino had set as its theoreticalpayback percentage for any electronic game on the floor.

How to Calculate the Theoretical Payback Percentage on a Slot Machine - I believe that anyone can calculate the theoretical payback percentage on any gaming machine in aSeminole Casino by using a formula that I created. The key to calculating a machine’s theoretical payback percentage is to track how many comp dollars you earn for putting exactly $100 in playthrough a machine. For example, if you bet $1 a spin, just track how many comp dollars you have earned after making 100 bets. Once you know that number, you can simply multiply it by 17 and youwill know the casino’s theoretical win rate for that machine. Deduct that number from 100, and you will then know the theoretical payback for that machine.

As an example, let’s say you put $100 through a penny slot machine and you earn 54 cents in comps. Just multiply .54 x 17 and you will get 9.18, which represents the casino’s theoretical winrate for that machine - 9.18%. Then, deduct 9.18 from 100 and you get 90.82 which would represent the casino’s theoretical payback percentage for that particular machine - 90.82%.

I found this method to be accurate and I tested it on dozens of machines at four different Seminole casinos. It should also work at the other two Seminole casinos since they all share the sameplayer’s club. One word of warning, however, is that I found the method to only be accurate for single-denomination machines. If you play a multi-denomination machine the method cannot berelied upon to give you an accurate payback percentage for all of the denominations.

Slot Machine Volume Study Definition

How Do Slot Paybacks at the Hard Rock in Hollywood Compare to the Other Local Casinos? In trying to determine an average payback percentage for slot machines at the Hard Rock in Hollywood, Irealized that it would not be possible to get an actual accounting and I would just have to make an educated guess based on the results of playing some machines in different denominations.

Therefore, I randomly played 10 different machines throughout the casino in three different denominations: pennies, quarter and dollars. As mentioned previously, I had to play exactly $100through each machine and in some instances it wasn’t possible to play exactly $100, so I might have gone over by a few pennies.

In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random penny slots and the average theoretical return was 88.37%

In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random quarter slots and the average theoretical return was 90.89%

In the table below you can see the results for playing 10 random dollar slots and the average theoretical return was 91.40%

So, now that we have analyzed the theoretical payback percentages on these machines, how do they compare to the actual returns on slots at other South Florida casinos in those samedenominations?

Well, unfortunately, Florida’s Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering, which compiles the statistics on payback percentages for all racetrack casinos only releases information on the average payoutfor all machines within each casino and not for specific denominations. We did put in a public records request asking for a breakdown of those stats by denomination, but we received thefollowing reply: “The Division does not maintain information responsive to the following request: slot machine gaming revenue reports by denomination (one cent, nickel, quarter, dollar, etc.).”

Since we couldn’t get information on payback percentages by denomination, it was not possible to compare the Hard Rock’s machines with those at the pari-mutuels. However, it was possible tomake an educated guess about the overall returns on the Hard Rock’s machines. For the 12-month period from July 2016 through June 2017, the pari-mutuel casino with the highest average returnswas Magic City at 93.55% and the lowest returns could be found at the Isle in Pompano where they averaged 90.91%. Therefore, based on the numbers shown in the tables above, I would have toagree that the Hard Rock Hollywood’s slot paybacks are “comparable” to those at other local casinos and they are not set to pay back at the low rates that some people would suggest.

How Do Returns on Machines at The Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Tampa Compare to Returns at Casinos in South Florida? On the American Casino Guide website visitors can leave a review forany U.S. casino and the Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa has gotten almost 200 reviews - https://www.americancasinoguide.com/florida/seminole-hard-rock-hotel-a-casino-tampa.html The vast majority of those reviews are complaints about how bad the paybacks are on the slotmachines. The thinking seems to be that, once again, the machines are set to pay back at a very low rate, especially since the Tampa casino has no competition because the nearest non-Seminolecasino is about 250 miles away. That sentiment seemed somewhat logical to me so I thought I would investigate further by making a trip to Tampa to visit the casino.

I arrived late in the day and I spent a few hours that evening, as well as a few more hours the next morning testing various machines using my formula. My thought was to find some of theexact same machines I played at the Hard Rock in Hollywood and to see if the theoretical payback percentages were lower. This turned out to be harder than I expected as I found it difficult tofind the same machines in the same denominations. One other thing I noticed was that there did not seem to be too many penny slots. Instead, the vast majority of the lower denomination gameswere two-cent slots. This was not the case at the Hard Rock casino in Hollywood, where penny machines were abundant.

Eventually, I did find a few machines, in three specific denominations, that were the exact same as the ones I played in Hollywood and the table below shows how the results compared.

For penny games there were three machines I tested and, interestingly, all three had the same theoretical payback percentage as at the Hollywood Hard Rock.

Finding quarter games proved to be a bit harder. I only found two machines that were identical to ones at the Hollywood casino and, once again, the theoretical payback percentages matched upfor both casinos.

At the dollar level I found four machines that matched up with their Hollywood casino counterparts. On the first one, Triple 777 Red Hot Three Reels, the comps earned were the same as at theHollywood casino. This was great because the comp rate on every machine was matching up perfectly, so far, but that soon stopped.

On the three-reel blazing 7’s machine the comp rate was 39 cents, which would correspond to a theoretical payback percentage of 93.37%, which was higher than the 91.50% figure for the samemachine in Hollywood. A similar thing happened with the next machine I tested: Quick Hit Platinum. The comp rate on this game was 41 cents which would equal a theoretical payback percentage of93.03% which, again, was higher than the 91.33% figure for the same machine in Hollywood.

Then, on the last dollar machine I played, Spin & Win Instant Spin, the results were slightly worse. That machine gave 56 cents in comps, which would correspond to a theoretical return of90.48%, versus the same machine in Hollywood which came in at 92.01%

So, interestingly, the theoretical payback percentages for the first eight slot machines in Tampa were either equal to, or better than, the same machines in Hollywood. This was very surprisingas I thought they would be lower at the Tampa casino because they had no direct competition.

But what about all those player reviews complaining that the slots in Tampa paid less than the slots in Hollywood? Well, my research showed that the machines were set to pay back at about thesame rate in both places. However, there didn’t seem to be quite as many penny machines in Tampa, most of them were 2-cents and higher, and this could offer an explanation.

Penny machines are the most common denomination found in U.S. casinos. For example, at the two Indian casinos in Connecticut, Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, penny machines make up about 60% of allthe slots on the floor. While I didn’t take an inventory of all the machines in Tampa I was struck by the fact that penny machines were not in abundance. Since the Tampa casino has nocompetition, it could be that they were forcing players to make a higher average bet simply by having fewer penny machines available. If so, a higher average bet would result in players losingtheir money faster, thus explaining the sour sentiments of some players. Keep in mind that the Hollywood casino would not be able to easily do the same thing because of competition from othercasinos. If a player in Hollywood didn’t think there were enough penny games available they could just go to a different casino. A player in Tampa would not have that option.

Now, looking back, it is true that one slot machine in Tampa did come in with a lower theoretical rate, but that could have simply been a mistake. Keep in mind that the casino knows what thechip in each machine is set to pay back to the public on a long-term basis and, in turn, they will set the player’s club comp rate to approximate that number. Sometimes mistakes are made andthe rate could be set too high, or too low. That could be what happened here, or perhaps it was intentional and there was a specific reason for that particular setting.

In conclusion, I hope that everyone reading this report understands that it is not a complete analysis of all machines at either casino. To undertake such a project would have required a hugeamount of manpower, plus a rather large bankroll to withstand the gambling losses that would be expected.

I am just one person who set out to investigate this subject as it is my area of expertise. I have been writing about payback percentages at casinos for more than 25 years and I believe that mywork is accurate. Should anyone from Seminole casino operations want to present any further information on this subject I would welcome hearing from them. I would be also be glad to print anyrebuttal that they might want to send to me concerning this article.